Dynamic Decision Making

Dynamic Decision Making

Rarely does any flight ever happen as scripted on the ground. We analyze weather, performance, terrain, and objectives well in advance of ever closing the canopy in preparation for launch (at least we should be). Once we wag our rudder or add power to start our takeoff roll, our flight plan is no longer static, but highly dynamic. Some changes to the script we prepare for every flight: When the rope breaks at 200’ AGL I’m going to execute a 180 degree turn back to the field. Other changes we may not be so deliberate about: If I end up below glide to the airport I am going to land in a field. While the differences may seem subtle, the process of approaching them and their outcome can be miles apart from each other.

Develop a plan of action

Have you ever considered why your primary flight instructor was so adamant that you developed a deliberate plan of action in the event of a rope break? By approaching such a decision point as a when/then event your CFI has been training to shorten your decision-making process to the point where it almost becomes a scripted response. Certainly, there are times when a rope break may surprise us, but by developing a plan of action of what we will do when the rope breaks the startle effect is shorter and we can enact the script we chose for that take-off instead of using precious altitude trying to snatch a plan out of the air that may get us on the ground safely. The idea has been touched on before in this newsletter that we should be surprised when the rope doesn’t break every launch; let’s dig deeper into how we strengthen that thought process by using a when/then decision process.

One model of the dynamics that we go through in the decision-making process is represented by the OODA Loop. Colonel John Boyd developed the OODA Loop model to explain how to focus energies and become more efficient in a combat environment (Boyd, 2020). As pilots, we expend similar energies each time we are presented with a variable that is outside of our anticipated script. The loop breaks when we become stuck in the Observe – Orient phases, unable to Decide or implement Action (Ullman, 2007). The filters that we apply to the data that we collect in the observation phase of the model greatly impact how we orient ourselves to the changes in our planned script. When we encounter a decision point (the rope breaks at 200’ agl, we are below glide to our intended airport, there’s strong sink on final) we have to orient ourselves to the variable. We go through a process of analysis & synthesis, relating to previous experiences, or identifying it as a new experience. Based on our training, knowledge, and experience (or lack thereof) we decide on a course of action to take. A note of caution: be wary of relying heavily on previous experiences when they tend to be in contradiction with your knowledge and training, such reliance can lead you down the path of expectation bias and you may be improperly orienting yourself to the challenge at hand. When the variable changes or we are unable to orient ourselves appropriately the loop breaks and we get stuck in an “OO-OO-OO” loop (Ullman, 2007). We end up out of sync and struggling to operate in a dynamic environment.

Get out of “Sync”

So how do we help to keep ourselves from ending up out of sync? By developing plans with a when/then mindset instead of an if/then. While the distinction between the two statements seems, minor let’s explore how it can impact our ability to process through the Orient phase of the OODA Loop. By identifying variables to our script with a when statement we begin to operate with a mindset that these events are going to happen. When the rope breaks at 200’, when the tow-plane rocks me off, when the engine will not restart in flight, etc. The when statement helps to temper possible expectation bias of that event not occurring, where an if/then approach leaves room for the event to not occur and we find ourselves having to reconcile the fact that it did in the orient phase of the OODA Loop. Depending on the scenario, the time that it takes to reconcile that an event happened may make the difference between landing in a field or landing back at the airport. The more efficiently we can orient to the changing dynamics in our environment, the quicker we can Decide what to do and Act on that decision. Take a few minutes at the end of each flight to debrief how well your script played out. Did it mostly run the way you had planned? Did you find yourself occasionally thinking “OO-OO-OO” as something unexpected occurred? If so, could that event have been better prepared for with a when/then mindset? Take the time to analyze your decision-making with the intent of improving your ability to orient yourself in response to dynamic variables. With deliberate practice, we should find ourselves saying “OO-OO-OO” as we snatch that 10 knot thermal, and not as we are trying to orient to a change in our script.

References

Boyd, J. (2020, 9 1). The Essence of Winning and Losing. (D. Ford, Editor) Retrieved

from A John Boyd bibliography:

https://web.archive.org/web/20110324054054/http://www.danford.net/boyd/essence.htm

Ullman, D. G. (2007). “OO-OO-OO!” The Sound of a Broken OODA Loop. CROSSTALK The Journal of Defense Software Engineering, 22-25.

Banner photo taken by fotorama.co.nz

Having started flying at 14 years old, Orion Kingman has logged over 10,500 hours of flight time in aircraft varying from 1-26s to 767s. He currently works as a line pilot for United Airlines, and is a DPE in the San Diego region. Having completed his undergraduate studies with Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, he most recently completed his Master’s Degree at Arizona State University in Emergency Management and Homeland Security. Orion participated in two US Soaring Team Junior Camps in Moriarty, NM, earning his Silver C Badge.